Why the Lakers are not afraid of Thunder.
Coming into the season the NBA pundits pegged the Thunder as the team most capable of knocking the Lakers off their throne. Much of that exuberance came from the Thunder’s performance in last years first round series where they gave the Lakers everything they could handle and then some. The Lakers needed a last second tip in from Pau to finish off the Thunder in game 6 of the series. The post game quotes from the Lakers were that of much praise for the young and upcoming Thunder. Kobe for one sounded incredibly relieved with post game 6 comments of “I’m glad we’re done with you” and “We won’t see another team that’s as athletic as they were the rest of the way”.
The hype didn’t stop at the team either as the media jumped on the Kevin Durant is the best in the game bandwagon as well. Many even making the statement that he had supplanted both Kobe and Lebron as the best in the game coming into this season. As it stands right now, Durant is the odds on favorite to win the NBA MVP award this year. Everybody needs to seriously slow their role. Keep in mind that all of this adulation and far fetched prognostication is for a team that made their first playoff appearance in 5 years by grabbing the 8th and last spot in the playoffs.
The emergence of the young Thunder is a nice story but lets be completely honest. The Thunder beat a barely awake Lakers team in last year’s playoffs and the close margin of victory in the series had more to do with the Lakers notorious complacency than the Thunder’s play. While I do believe that the Thunder are a very good young team that have the making of being a force in the West for years to come, now is not their time and they actually have a ways to go. Here are some of the glaring holes in the Thunder’s game:
Outside Shooting Woes
High fly acts are great to watch in the NBA and the Thunder roster has guys capable of making those jaw dropping athletic plays you normally see on sports highlights. But, outside shooting is still a vital part of the game and the Thunder are just plain bad at it.
Russell Westbrook is an incredibly talented player who will compete in the best point guard in the league debate with Chris Paul and Deron Williams for the next 10 years, no doubt. Right now though, his outside shot is as accurate as an archer with a severe case of hypothermia. Russell has played a total of 414 minutes and 11 games but has only made 2 more 3 pointers than you or I have (assuming you are not a NBA player with 3 point marksmanship).
James Harden, their off the bench scorer, has an average of .368 which would be great if it was a batting average but horrible mark for a field goal percentage.
Durant, the Thunder’s go to guy, is shooting .413 from the field and keep in mind that many of those are shots around the basket. The Thunder team collectively shoots 25% from 3 point range which ranks dead last in the NBA. They don’t get much better when you account for all made shots as they rank 24th in the league in overall field goal percentage.
Luckily for the Thunder they got some athletes that can get to the hoop at will, but, with such an obvious weakness other teams will be able to clog the lane and dare them to shoot.
Lack of an Inside Game
The Thunder’s roster is reminiscent of a tootsie role pop; hard candy shell but once your crack the perimeter you get a soft gooey middle. We all know about the solid talent on the perimeter that can slash, run, jump and amaze. When things slow down though, you want to have the option of throwing it down in the post for close to the basket points.
Kristic, the oldest looking 28 year old you’ll ever see, is serviceable but lacks an inside game. He is good for a few 10-15 footers a game but not much more.
Serge Ibaka is long, athletic and has the potential to be a very good NBA player, but right now he is only an adequate offensive player who is still incredibly raw. Right now his game is most valuable on the defensive end. Other then some thundering put backs around the rim and some awkward looking 10 foot “jumpers” he is not the answer right now in the post.
Jeff Green is a nice player who does many things well, but I would say nothing really all that great. Jeff Green will give you points in a variety of ways, but mainly, those points are coming from outside the paint and with him facing the basket.
Look up and down their roster, there isn’t one player that you can count on to provide any type of scoring on a consistent basis in the post. In contrast, the Lakers have at least 5 players that would be very effective and productive in the low block, one of which, Gasol, is probably the best in the business operating down low.
Incredibly young
When was the last time you saw a young team compete for a title in the NBA, let alone win it all? Only team I can think of in recent memory is the Penny and Shaq Magic who had a very short shelf life on top. Even that team had some veteran leadership with Horace Grant, Donald Royal and Nick Anderson. Players that have been through the riggers of an NBA season a and the pressure of the playoffs a few times around react quicker to situations on the court, see things slower and handle pressure better than those players who are inexperienced.
The Thunder don’t have one player in their rotation over the age of 30. In fact, their two best players, Durant and Westbrook, are younger than Andrew Bynum who is the Lakers youngest player in the rotation. For all their immense talent you can’t substitute experience as the Lakers and Celtics have shown that over the last 4 years. You can actually go through the history of the NBA and look at every championship team. The trend that you’ll find is veteran teams that had played together for some time who finally got over the hump through trial and tribulation.
To recap, the Thunder shoot horribly from the outside, are lacking an inside game and are incredibly young to be considered as a viable threat to the Lakers at this time. On certain days, Durant and Westbrook will win a few games just on their individual abilities. Some nights the Thunder’s athletic prowess will consume teams defensively like it did at times against the Lakers in last year’s playoff match up. However, those days will be few and far between.
The Thunder’s time will come, but it won’t be this year. The Mavs, Jazz and Spurs are still the Lakers biggest threats in the West, albeit modest ones. I actually believe the Thunder won’t get a spot higher than 6th and can very easily miss the playoffs due to the extremely competitive Western conference who house a good amount of above average teams.
The way you determine how close a Thunder storm is to your current location is by the amount of time passed from when you see lightning flash to the time you hear thunder. In the case of the Lakers, they’ve seen the lightning flash quite some time ago and the thunder has yet to make a whimper.
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