Friday, November 26, 2010

Is Kobe expected for a Big Decline at 32?


Kobe expected for a major decline at age 32?




It is hard to imagine a profession where someone in their early 30’s is considered to be towards the end of their career and in some cases, completely washed up. By all intents and purposes, someone in their early 30’s is still considered young and having their whole life in front of them. Many at this age are barely starting to form their family and make strides in their career. However, retirement planning or plans for a secondary career after reaching the big three-o is a reality in the world of the NBA.



For Lakers fans, this concept brings a very troubling question to mind. What can be expected of Kobe Bryant this year who will be entering his 15th NBA season and reach the age of 32 before we even get to the all-star break. Usually that question is not one of concern because Kobe has shown time and time again that he will put forth the effort in the off season to be prepared for the long and laboring season. Kobe’s natural talent, will and incredible work ethic would guarantee an optimal performance throughout the entire season. Can we expect optimal from Kobe at 32? To be fair, should we expect that from Kobe at this point? If there is a big drop off from Kobe’s production can the Lakers survive?



We obviously can’t predict how much Kobe’s age will affect his production this year; but, I figured we can go back in history and see how other great guards in the NBA have faired when playing at the age of 32. Hopefully, history will provide a good outlook and in effect, calm some of the panic that many Laker fans might have about Kobe’s age entering this NBA season.



Clyde Drexler: A member of the 50 greatest players to have ever played in the NBA and the go to guy on probably one of the best teams not to win a championship. Clyde was 32 when starting the 94-95 season with Portland. While Clyde was not quite the explosive scorer he was in the hey days of the Blazers in the late 80s, he was still a very productive scorer. The problem coming into this season was that the Blazers were a team in transition and felt they needed to make move to get younger. The Blazers traded their all time leading scorer to the Houston Rockets in this season. Clyde teamed up with his former Phi Slama Jamma teammate Hakeem Olajuwon and helped the Rockets get their 2nd straight Championship. Clyde wasn’t just along for the ride, he was a major contributor. He averaged over 20 points per game, 7 rebounds and 6 assist in the playoffs and finals combined; these numbers only show a slight drop off in production from his peak years. Clyde’s production did begin to slip considerably the following season.



Bernard King: One of the best at putting the ball in the basket in NBA history entered the 88-89 season with the Washington Bullets. At 32 years old, it was quite a feat that Bernard was even on an NBA roster considering that he had just returned one season ago from a terrible knee injury that had cost him more than 2 years of his career. Bernard did not experience team success with the Bullets this season being the team had a sub 500 record and missed the playoffs. However, Bernard was able to put together a strong season for himself by improving his scoring production from the previous year. He actually continued to raise his scoring average the following two seasons, peaking at 28.4 points per game in the 90-91 when he was 34 years old. This is a good sign for Kobe considering Bernard was able to remain at an All Star level despite his age and injuries.



Allen Iverson: At one time AI was the most explosive scorer in the league and a fan favorite. Nowadays AI cant even find work within the US borders. When the 07-08 season started AI was still in the United states, 32 years old and was starting his first full season with the Denver Nuggets after having been traded mid season from Philadelphia the previous season. It was a great statistical season for AI; he shot a career high .458 from the field and formed the most prolific scoring duo in the NBA that season with Carmelo Anthony. If AI lost a step at this age it was very hard to tell. AI showed his durability this season by playing in all 82 regular season games. AI didn’t prove to be the missing piece to get the Nuggets over the hump in the playoffs as they lost in the first round for the 5th straight season.



Magic Johnson: Magic actually never played an official Laker game at the age of 32. As all Laker and NBA fans know, Magic announced he was HIV positive prior to the start of the 91-92 and retired from basketball. In the previous season, Magic was very close to the age of 32 but you couldn’t tell from his play that he was in any sort of decline in his play. Sure, he was no longer as an efficient scorer as he was in the early to mid 80s but he still was every bit the floor leader. Magic led the underdog Lakers to a 6 game series win in the conference finals over the heavily favored Portland Trailblazers and set up a much anticipated match up against the Micheal Jordan led Bulls in the finals. Magic and the Lakers couldn’t overtake the Bulls who went on to win their first of six championships in the 90s but whatever decline there was in Magic’s game it was marginal.





Michael Jordon: We can’t have a Kobe comparison piece without including Michael Jordan. In terms of searching for a positive outlook on a guard playing at a high level at the age of 32 MJ is the ray of hope. MJ coming off his first of three retirements starts his first full season since retiring with the Bulls in 95-96. Just about any accolade you can receive and goal you can reach was met by Jordan in this remarkable season. Jordon led the league in scoring at 30.4 points per game, his Bulls won a record 72 regular season wins and won an NBA championship over the then Seattle Supersonics. He won all of the available MVP awards that year by taking the All-Star, Regular Season and Finals MVP. There isn’t much more that could have been accomplished in an NBA season and MJ did this at age 32.



These examples, while anecdotal, can provide some insight on how great NBA guards can produce near the level of their pinnacle years at the age of 32. As you can see, all of the great guards mentioned showed very little decline in their play and in some cases were even able to take their team to championship contention levels. This information should relive some of the doubts that many Laker fans might have that a huge drop off in production should be expected in Kobe this year, which would inevitably cause the derailment of the Laker’s 3peat train.



Please, do not make the same mistake of the Chuckster (Charles Barkley) who during this past season’s Lakers vs. Thunder first round series proclaimed Kobe as being “done”. He went on to add that Kobe’s days of having 30 to 40 point games on a consistent basis were “OVER”; with an emphasis on the word OVER. As if on queue, Kobe went on to string together fourteen 30 point games and quite possibly one of his best playoff performances of his career.



Yes, Kobe’s regular season numbers have gone done slightly these last few years but much of that can be attributed to having more talent around him and his willingness to trust his teammates. If there is anything that we have learned from Kobe’s illustrious career is to never doubt his abilities or him reaching goals that seem improbable at the time. Hopefully, Charles Barkley would have learned his lesson but having become familiar with his stubbornness, I really doubt it. It might be a good thing for him to spew his obviously biased hate towards Kobe again as we see how well Kobe responded this past year.

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